Impact of External Shock on Fluctuation of Vegetable Price —Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data VAR Model
LUO Chao-ping1，LI Wei-yi2，ZHAI Qiong3
1College of Economics and Management， Southwest University， Chongqing 400715， China； 2Industrial Policy
and Regulation Department， Ministry of Agriculture， Beijing 100125， China； 3College of Economics and Management，
Chongqing Normal University， Chongqing 401331， China
Abstract：On the basis of building panel vector auto-regression model（PVAR），the authors
empirically analyzed the impact of external shock on fluctuation of vegetable price；and found that
except GDP growth rate，which had a significant impact on price fluctuation，other variables contributed
only 1.5%-3.3% to price variation. Meanwhile，considering the impact from variable，when given the
subsidies-LBT a standard differential impact，the vegetable price-LJG would response negatively and
reach a maximum in the third period．When given the vegetable disaster area LCZ a standard deviation，
the vegetable price - LJG would initially turn a negative response then to positive response in the third
period. When given GDP growth a deviation shock，vegetable price-LJG showed a distinct positive
response．When given the LCZSR a deviation shock，vegetable price-LJG showed negative response．
Therefore，the effect of external shock to vegetable price is not ideal，there exists hysteresis qualityin its response to partial external shock. Consequently，building a sound vegetable industry market
mechanism，improving the efficiency of vegetable circulation，and ensuring the balance between
vegetable supply and demand are important measures to inhibit t he violent fluctuation of vegetable price.
罗超平, 李伟毅, 翟琼. 外部冲击对蔬菜价格波动的影响——基于面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）的实证分析[J]. 中国蔬菜, 2013, 1(10): 16-22.
LUO Chao-Ping, LI Wei-Yi, Zhai Qiong. Impact of External Shock on Fluctuation of Vegetable Price —Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data VAR Model. , 2013, 1(10): 16-22.
