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| Studies on Mechanism of Garlic Price Formation—based on Price Bubble Perspective |
| YUAN Tian-tian，ZHANG Bing，ZHAO Bang-hong，WANG Jun-qin* |
| College of Economics and Management，Hebei Agricultural University，Baoding 071000，Hebei，China |
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Abstract This paper analyzed the causes of fluctuations in supply quantity，cost changesand export quantity by summarizing the fluctuation characteristics and rules of garlic prices from 2004-2018 in China，and tested and confirmed the hypothesis for existence of multiple periodic bubbles with SADF and GSADF methods．The results showed that garlic prices in China fluctuated sharply twice in 2009-2011 and 2016-2017．The explaintory power of fundamental supply and demand factors for price fluctuations was inadequate．Two positive bubbles in garlic market presented，and speculators’expectations were playing a leading role during the bubbles duration．Scientific precaution for the potential impact on pricing mechanism of garlic price bubbles，etc.small agricultural products can raise the level of sustainable development of small agricultural products market．
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Received: 13 July 2019
Published: 27 September 2019
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